January 9, 2008, - 11:52 am

Michigan Prez Primary Analysis & Predictions: Cankles and McCain (Romney Likely 2nd)

By Debbie Schlussel
I haven’t written a lot about the Presidential primaries in the last couple of weeks or so because I figured–and hoped–you were as tired of hearing about corn-p3wned Iowa caucuses and the Ben & Jerry emigres to New Hampshire (yes, a lot of New Hampshirites are transplanted Vermont hippies) as I was.
But Michigan is another story. As a lifelong (except grad school) Michiganian (I hate the Michigander goose-like description) and two-time candidate for office in the Metro Detroit area (I lost by just one vote), I think I know the ins and outs here and have a little something of note to say on our January 15th primary, next Tuesday.

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Michigan: The Bitch is BAAAAACK. (& The War Hero, Too.)

I predict, on the Democrat side, that Hillary will win Michigan. Well, actually, that’s not a hard prediction, since she’s the only major Democratic candidate on the ballot. The others boycotted our primary in keeping with the Democratic party’s proscription of not making our primary earlier. So, Hillary will win. While there is a too-little, too-late movement by Obama supporters to get people to vote “Uncommitted” in the Democratic Primary, it’s a non-starter. And Hillary will get more than 50% of the Democratic primary vote. Hillary is very popular here, including and especially among older female Black voters. Younger Blacks here tend to favor Obama, but they don’t tend to vote in large numbers.
There is the option for Democratic voters to vote “Uncommitted,” but they are not allowed to write in anyone’s name. Doing so invalidates a primary ballot, which many absentee voters have done (they are being given a second chance to revote, the legality of which I question unless they specifically ask for a new ballot). You have to notify the city clerk which party’s ballot you want. I doubt “Uncommitted” will beat Hillary, but it would be a resounding defeat for her (worse than losing to Obama) if that happened.
But many Dems will be crossing over and voting Republican. And there’s the rub. In 2000, we had a similar scenario. By then, we knew that Gore would be the Democratic nominee. So, Democrats from all over voted in the Republican primary, which you can do in Michigan. As a result, John McCain beat George W. Bush. This time around, though, Dems are urging their crew to vote for Huckabee because they think he’ll be the weakest candidate and the one most easily beaten in November. They’re right about that.
I predict, though, that many Dems will vote for McCain instead of Huckabee. John McCain is popular here in Michigan, including among Democrats (except among Muslims–in 2000, McCain attended the Dearbornistan Arab American Insititute political conference and gutsily told them he supports Israel, continued aid to it, and Jerusalem as it’s undivided capital).
That’s why I think either McCain or Huckabee will win Michigan. And from the campaigning here, I think McCain–not Huckabee–will pull it off. I vote in every single election, including for school board and dog catcher. And the only campaign that’s contacted me–several times by phone–is the McCain campaign. As a likely primary voter, I was invited to, among other things, an airport rally/town hall meeting, this afternoon, with John McCain in my county. Although, I must say, the recording of John McCain did not sound all that enthusiastic and charismatic. (I also got a call from Rasmussen Report pollsters, but I was on the other line and clicked over too late.)
The fact that McCain got the endorsements of both the liberal Detroit Free Press and the Islamist-occupied, semi-liberal Detroit Newsistan means nothing. No-one listens to these papers endorsements. It’s less important than a merit badge for baking cookies in the Girl Scouts.
Romney has been running TV ads the longest, although McCain and Huckabee have begun doing so. But Romney’s ad–he’s been running the same, single ad for weeks–is a bad one. It talks about the Chinese and how soon they will be building cars and airliners. At the very end, Romney claims he will invest in development and research and insist on a level playing field–all glittering generalities without specifics. But you never really notice that part because the majority of the ad sounds like a cheerleading campaign for China.
That’s a big no-no in Michigan, where the dominant manufacturing segment is shrinking faster than a pie on Rosie O’Donnell’s snack-plate. Although the ad is meant to appeal to Reagan Democrat autoworkers who’ve been laid off, it serves more as a source of anger and doesn’t tell us much about what Romney will do.
Huckabee only has one scheduled event in Michigan before the primary, a speech to the Detroit Economic Club, where only elitist Detroiters will see or hear him. They are not rank-and-file Michigan Republican Primary voters. On the other hand, Romney and McCain have several events scheduled almost every single day through Tuesday’s Primary.
Fred Thompson and Rudy Giuliani have no appearances scheduled here and no ads appearing on TV. That’s a mistake. At one time–for a prolonged period of time–Rudy led polls in Michigan. He could have won here. Thompson even led, every so briefly, here.
The punishment on the Republican side for holding our primary early is that the number of Michigan delegates to the Republican National Convention will be cut in half. But by the time of the conventions, I predict neither party will, in fact, punish the state, as they want to win the swing/bellweather state and home to Reagan Democrats in the general election.
Romney can’t afford to lose here because he made that so by constantly billing himself as a Michigan “favorite son,” which he isn’t. Not sure how having a liberal nutjob father who was a self-declared “brainwashed” Governor of Michigan FOUR DECADES AGO makes you a favorite son. We haven’t seen or heard from Mitt Happens until about a year-and-a-half ago. But he’ll lose, and I predict it will be the beginning of the very long drawn out end of his campaign, though he’ll spend far more until he finally drops out.
So, if I had to bet money on it, I’d predict Hillary Rodham Cankles Clinton and John McCain will win Michigan, with Mitt Romney in second place here. That’s my story, and I’m sticking to it.

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12 Responses

A gander is a male goose, not a duck. A male duck is called a drake. So if a guy from Michigan is a Michigander, that makes the woman a Michigoose. ;-) Affectionately, of course.
[JW: OOPS. I KNEW THAT. THAT'S WHAT I MEANT. WAS IN A HURRY. THAT'S WHAT HAPPENS WHEN I'M IN A HURRY. THANKS. DS]

John West on January 9, 2008 at 1:21 pm

This sounds depressing. Of all the candidates in the GOP field, Giuliani and Romney are my favorites. I recognize that both have their chinks in their armor (no pun intended), but if McCain is the GOP candidate, there won’t be much difference between him and Hilary/Obama.
Doesn’t Romney have any ads running about Jihad? I know that’ll backfire in Dearbornistan, but how about Infidel areas of the state? Here in CA, we have a Giuliani ad that looks more like a preview of the movie ‘Obsession’, and the only problem with that ad is the use of the phrase ‘a religion betrayed’ while describing Islam (all the Jihadi activity worldwide today, as well as pro-shariah activity, such as honor killings, footbaths, are an AFFIRMATION, rather than a betrayal of Islam). Both McCain and Huckabee are Liberal candidates (Huckabee uses his evangelical background to mask that), so if either one of them gets the nomination, either sit out, or vote for the openly Liberals.
I agree with Rush – I do think that Romney, with his second place finish so far, has a good chance on Super Tuesday.

Infidel Pride on January 9, 2008 at 1:28 pm

Debbie/Infidel Pride: As others at other sites have asked, “what will it take to rid us of the Clintons!?”. Thought we were redeemed after Iowa. Sadly, not so! Then Mr. McCain sprouts up out of no where. Yikes. His affiliation/back-room-dealing with the “enemy” does not endear him to conservatives, for sure. As some have pointed out, he has worn out his Viet Nam service and status. We don’t try to downplay it, rather we should still honor it, but his “good ol’ boy” friendliness with Uncle Ted and others is not offset by it. He is too much an example of what is wrong with Washington, why they are so out of touch with us in the rest of the country. I agree, Mr. Romney has had my interest for some time for his business acumen, his ability to manage large organizations. For sure, we need someone who knows how to rein in spending and has the guts to stand up to a Congress that doesn’t know how to do anything but spend. And he seems to say the right things about immigration and a strong military. I still hope that America is still full of thinking, reasoning people. People that can look at the “numbers”, the things that each candidate says he will/won’t do about key issues and make a reasoned choice. That is in stark contrast to what “we” did, twice, in the 90s and selected Billy Jeff in the face of overwhelming contradictory evidence to his competence. I’m not overly optimistic, given the following of Hillary and Huckabee/McCain. There is always hope that cooler/thinking minds can still prevail.

Floyd R. Turbo on January 9, 2008 at 2:55 pm

Floyd
Why jump to conclusions about Clinton being inevitable? Here’s the delagate count so far:
States allocating pledged delegates to date:
Iowa, Wyoming (GOP), New Hampshire
Republican Delegates (1,191 needed to win nomination)
Candidate Delegates
Rudy Giuliani 0
Mike Huckabee 31
Duncan Hunter 1
John McCain 7
Ron Paul 0
Mitt Romney 29
Fred Thompson 3
Total 71
Democratic Delegates (2,026 needed to win nomination)
Candidate Delegates
Hillary Clinton 24
John Edwards 18
Mike Gravel 0
Dennis Kucinich 0
Barack Obama 25
Bill Richardson 0
Total 67
Source: The Associated Press
Obama and Clinton are still neck and neck, so each of their supporters can still do what it takes to push their nominee through. Same for Romney & Huckabee. Which states are McCain going to carry en mass? How exactly does he woo votes from Giuliani, who is less open to amnesty than McCain, and who isn’t opposed to Gitmo & torture?

Infidel Pride on January 9, 2008 at 3:06 pm

Above numbers from here:
http://youdecide08.foxnews.com/2008/01/09/national-delegate-count-tally/

Infidel Pride on January 9, 2008 at 3:07 pm

Infidel Pride,
CNN includes pledged delegates with won delegates for their tally:
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/scorecard/#D
Clinton
183
Obama
78
Edwards
52
Richardson
19
Kucinich
1
I don’t know if Clinton’s nomination is inevitable, but it looks like she’s got a good head start.

Norman Blitzer on January 9, 2008 at 3:51 pm

I guess I don’t understand which part of “Republican primary” idiotic lawmakers do not comprehend? I don’t want Dems picking my candidate and I’m sure they don’t want me picking theirs. Why can’t we get this straightened out?

MadMom on January 9, 2008 at 6:06 pm

Is Michigan a winner-take-all-state?
Rush says residents of Vermont and MA were allowed to vote in the NH primary. Interference from out-of-staters. It looks like Michigan has interference from Dems.

lexi on January 9, 2008 at 6:10 pm

I hope you’re right, Debbie. I think you’re wrong. RON PAUL will either win big in Michigan or make an unusually strong showing.
Here’s why:
As you mentioned, Hillary Rodham (She will change her last name if she is ever elected POTUS) will win the Democratic Primary. The problem for Democrats is that she voted to invade Iraq and voted for the Patriot Act both times. The anti-war crowd hates her. Given that fact, there is only one place for the anti-war crowd to go. Yup! You guessed it!
Between the City of Ann Arbor, all anti-war activists and all the militia kooks, Ron Paul is going to get a big boost from Michigan whether or not he wins. He doesn’t even have to make a campaign appearance here. His anti-war credentials is all the extreme left needs given that there are no other alternatives.
So look for Ron Paul to score big next week, Debbie. Like I said: I hope you’re right and McCain and Huckabee score one/two or vice versa.
Remember where you heard this first.
Sincerely,
There is NO Santa Claus

There is NO Santa Claus on January 9, 2008 at 6:45 pm

John West,
Are you sure it wasnÔø?t a Maganzer duck?
http://www.pbase.com/camon/image/79332278
Think fast ;)

West Dearbornistan on January 10, 2008 at 9:23 am

The mere thought of McCane winning Michigan is just too depressing for me to contemplate. I guess it has been too long since George Romney was the guv for Mitt to cash in on his connections.
There is no way I could vote for MCCain in a general election. His repeated attempts at massive amnesty are incomprehensible. I would rather see this country destroyed by Hillary or Obama than by a dimwit Republican.

GFB on January 10, 2008 at 12:54 pm

Everybody is speaking about nomination within Dem/Rep party. But the overwhelming majority of USA citizens with right to vote do not belong to any of them and their voice is not heard. The Parties’ primaries are highly discriminatory events that hurt most of all the immigrants of first generation and their adult children, who, usually, are not members of any such party. The whole system of election in USA has nothing to do with so-called Democracy (in fact, it is much more appropriate to call American system Plutocracy or Financial Oligarchy). The whole election process in USA is completely anti-Democratic and obsolete. It arises only irritation and rejection in people familiar with much better and fairer processes. Look at France or Germany – they may be called Democracies, and with reason.

MarcAurelio on January 12, 2008 at 4:47 pm

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