February 1, 2016, - 2:53 pm

My Predictions, Yours & Vegas Bookies on Tonight’s Iowa Caucuses

By Debbie Schlussel

iowacaucuses

What are your predictions on the results of tonight’s Iowa Caucuses–GOP and Dem? Here are mine and those of the bookies.

I believe Donald Trump will come in first at the Iowa Republican Caucuses, tonight, that Ted Cruz will come in a close second, and that Marco Rubio will be third. John Ellis Bush Bush (JEB Bush) will do horribly and should drop out but won’t because it will be an embarrassment to the Bush family that the son and brother of two recent U.S. Presidents drops out after the first state’s choices are made. So, he will stick it out until at least after Super Tuesday. He has enough money left–from early pre-Trump-entry donors when Jeb was the anointed, chosen one–to stay in the race long enough to keep from totally embarrassing the Bush family (if you believe he hasn’t done so already–and I believe he has).

I believe Bernie Sanders will win the Democratic caucuses, and behind the scenes, Hillary will be fuming and swearing like a sailor. It’s what “Feel the Bern” really means. But she’ll put a plastic smiley face on her loss in public, per usual. Her minions will cite her alleged firewall will be South Carolina. By the way, last night, Marxist lunatic Michael Moore endorsed his fellow Marxist lunatic, Bernie. But that sways, um, no one.

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Actually, I think Carson will try to stay in until after Super Tuesday, also. He will probably come in fourth in Iowa tonight, so he’ll still have some juice. Not much, but still some.

Here are some of the betting odds according to Vegas Insider for tonight:

Along with general and primary election odds, Sportsbook.ag is posting numbers on the Iowa Caucus for both the Republican and Democratic nominees. Donald Trump has been installed as a heavy 1/4 favorite (Bet $100 to win $25) to capture Iowa for the Republican Party while Hillary Clinton remains the top betting choice at 5/12 (Bet $100 to win $42) for the Democratic Party.

Odds to win the 2016 Republican Iowa Caucus
Donald Trump 1/4
Ted Cruz 3/1
Marco Rubio 15/1
Ben Carson 100/1
Rand Paul 100/1
Carly Fiorina 250/1
Chris Christie 250/1
Jeb Bush 250/1
John Kasich 250/1
Rick Santorum 500/1

Odds to win the 2016 Democratic Iowa Caucus
Hillary Clinton 5/12
Bernie Sanders 9/5
Martin OMalley 9999/1

Again, what are your predictions? Weigh in, below.

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17 Responses

Those Tweets are hilarious!

DS_ROCKS! on February 1, 2016 at 4:04 pm

I suspect that Hillary Clinton will engage in some “Dirty Tricks”, in order to win in Iowa. Donald Trump, despite Fox News whining, will probably win a narrow victory tonight.

If Jeb Bush had had any sense of personal dignity, he would have pulled out by now. Even Republican sycophants have walked away from him now.

Worry on February 1, 2016 at 4:18 pm

Even Goldman Sachs Has Bailed on Bush http://bloom.bg/1Ptz46k

Worry on February 1, 2016 at 4:24 pm

I think Trump will win big (over 10 points) and Bernie will win by 3-6 points.

Hillel on February 1, 2016 at 5:25 pm

Bing predicts Trump will run the table until South Carolina.

The only real suspense is whether Trump will exceed his predicted margin of victory.

In other words, will all those new voters he has attracted actually come out to vote for him?

We’ll find out more tonight.

NormanF on February 1, 2016 at 5:30 pm

I predict a Trump-Cruz tie, followed by Carson, rather than Rubio. Also, at the bottom, I think Mr Bush Bush will fall behind not just Chrispie Creme and Kasich, but behind Khadijah Fiorina as well.

Also predicting that at the end of the night, Huckabee & Santorum will exit the campaign, and probably endorse Trump in the days ahead.

I too predict the Bern winning this. And I do not think that a ‘southern firewall’ will save Hilary: once Dems in SC and the SEC states see Hilary lose, they too will switch to Bernie. Or they may even switch to O’Malley.

Black Caucasian – that’s a new one. But there is a new meaning now to White Caucasian.

I’m rooting for Cruz, but I think Trump will win this and all the primaries that follow, and will clinch the nomination very quickly. It’s on the Dem side, like 8 years ago, where the battle will be long drawn.

Infidel on February 1, 2016 at 7:58 pm

Looks like the Bernster picked up some momentum. His damn passion, he sells that crap spewing from his mouth. Damn he sells it.

Hillary, people just do not like her, she was horrible in that town hall style thingy. Bern, sold it. Hillary needs debate style.

Lol @ Carson joke, boy did he just flame out or what? Selling himself as some knucklehead punk? Bro, just embrace your brains, just because you came from the hood, doesn’t mean you have to have been “Hoodish” (my coined word)

What happened to Forina, she flamed too. I liked her idea of intergrating and modernizing the computer systems that the agencies use, but that was about it.

I think Trumps margin of victory won’t be as big as it once could have been, i think this week he lost a lil momentum, a lil.

MrBigBrain on February 1, 2016 at 8:01 pm

With each vote Hillary Clinton receives, nail is driven further into the coffin of the Democratic Party. Why? The essay that could be written to explain exactly why would take a textbook, but can be summed up in a few words: Hillary Clinton is a criminal and had she been in a different place, in a different time, she would already have been indicted and prosecuted. By extension, and by careful analysis, a thinking person will also conclude that the Democratic Party has followed in suit.

Barry Gustin, on February 1, 2016 at 9:00 pm

With each vote Hillary Clinton receives, the nail is driven further into the coffin of the Democratic Party. Why? The essay that could be written to explain exactly why would take a textbook, but can be summed up in a few words: Hillary Clinton is a criminal and had she been in a different place, in a different time, she would already have been indicted and prosecuted. By extension, and by careful analysis, a thinking person will also conclude that the Democratic Party en mass has followed in suit.

Barry Gustin, MD on February 1, 2016 at 9:02 pm

This may sound like a cop out, but my prediction is that there will be a record breaking turnout in both parties which means democracy is the real winner. This as opposed to the Iowa caucuses of the 1980’s where you rarely had more than 40,000 voters turning out.

Charles Rector on February 1, 2016 at 9:08 pm

Except for one point, I agree with you Debbie. I just think Cruz’s 2nd place will be a little more distant.

Hillary’s been cursing and screaming behind the scenes and under her breath for months now, as far as I see it. She’s always been vain but I think she’d better come to the realization that it’s over for her before it kills her… yes I predict a worsening in both her mental and physical health after her defeat and the longer she stays in the worse it gets. Just a hunch.

YCHtT on February 1, 2016 at 9:08 pm

Cruz wins

Infidel on February 1, 2016 at 10:28 pm

It was revealing that many of Cruz’ best margins came from areas that had gone for Romney in 2012.

Trump was unable to overcome the tremendous hostility towards him from the media, mainstream and ‘conservative’. Talk radio was virtually united behind Cruz, and, of course, Fox, with its open borders was rabidly against Trump.

The hostility towards Trump was both overt and subtle. For isntance, the constant reference to Trump as a ‘mogul’; a word with Muslim connotations, but also, to some, even though incorrectly, a Jewish-sounding word.

If nothing else, though, Trump has shown the utter vacuity of talk radio, and ‘conservative’ publications, not that it wasn’t obvious before, but not so glaringly.

LA: I disagree. Rush Limbaugh, the king of conservative talk radio, has been extremely pro-Trump for months, almost consistently. Michael Savage endorsed Trump and repeatedly praised him and had him on. Until recently, Mark Levin was very pro-Trump. I’ve never heard anyone say that “mogul” is a Jewish-sounding word, and I doubt anyone thought Trump to be Jewish. And I rarely heard Trump even be referred to as a “mogul,” mostly just as a “billionaire.” I do agree that a bunch of bimbos, lightweights, and airheads got together at National Review (which has very little influence and respect these days because it doesn’t deserve any) pounced on Trump, but I don’t think it had any effect on the result, as much as they would like to pretend it did. DS

Little Al on February 1, 2016 at 10:58 pm

My take is that a good percentage of Trump support is from democrat voters who can’t vote for him in the Republican Caucuses which puts Cruz ahead and the results seem to verify that.

theShadow on February 1, 2016 at 11:29 pm

Caucasians! LOL!

Well, Debbie, your predictions were pretty close.

Esser Agaroth on February 2, 2016 at 3:17 am

See Trump lost a lil momentum last week, you could see it. You could see.

MrBigBrain on February 2, 2016 at 2:52 pm

The two Spaniards did pretty good. Hope they enjoy it while they can as Trump will be kicking their open-border @sses in other states. lol

Clark on February 2, 2016 at 9:50 pm

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