January 16, 2008, - 11:23 am

More Michigan Primary Post-Mortems & Interesting Figures

By Debbie Schlussel
As I wrote last night, one of the big reasons my prediction of a McCain victory didn’t come to fruition was that there simply wasn’t the Democratic crossover that had been expected. That’s due to last minute confusion over the “Uncommitted” vs. Hillary issue on the Democratic Primary side of things.
And the numbers bear out the lack of crossover. Here are some exit poll numbers from Edison Media Research and Mitofsky International of New Jersey, as reported in today’s Detroit Free Press. These are the categories in which McCain won voters–Mitt Romney won every other category. It does show evidence of the Daily Kos effect, since Romney still took a significant percentage of these Kos-esque voters:

* Among self-identified Democrats voting in the Republican primary:
McCain–41%
Romney–33%
* Among self-identified independent voters or something else:
McCain–35%
Romney–29%

mittromney.jpgjohnmccain.jpg

* Among self-described moderates:
McCain–40%
Romney–34%
* Among those who view the Bush administration negatively:
McCain–37%
Romney–28%

But then there are these interesting figures–interesting only because McCain has made his Iraq war support the focus of his campaign (but not surprising, because he appeals to Dems, even those who oppose the war):

* Among those who approve of the Iraq war:
Romney–42%
McCain–27%
* Among those who disapprove of the Iraq war:
McCain–36%
Romney–29%

A story in today’s Wall Street Journal also bears out my comment about Michigan voters buying into the “Mitt-y Fantasy Talk” vs. McCain’s more pessimistic “Straight Talk”:

[Romney] belittled Sen. McCain’s self-professed “straight talk” that many Michigan jobs aren’t coming back . . . .
That stance was a winning one for many voters. Keith Lombardi, 45, came to a Romney event in Taylor [DS: a working class Detroit suburb] Sunday undecided between him and Mr. Huckabee; he left favoring Mr. Romney because of “what he can do for Michigan.”

You keep thinking that, Mr. Lombardi. If only it were the case.
And finally, I was right about the “favorite son” claim by Romney having no effect. An exit poll by Detroit’s NBC affiliate, WDIV-TV/Local 4, found that 56% of Republican primary voters said they were unmoved by Romney’s hollow “favorite son” talking point.

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2 Responses

Hey Deb,
Are you sure the numbers for “Among those who disprove…” correct?
What the heck has Romney been saying out there in MI that the war hawk McCain got more votes from the warhaters?
[BB: YES, THEY'RE CORRECT. CLICK ON THE LINK. DS]

billybob on January 16, 2008 at 12:07 pm

The favorite son issue was over promoted in the media. After all, few Michigan voters have any memory of George Romney who has been gone from Michigan politics for 40 years. Several other Romneys lost elections here after him. However, there is some name recognition. It is greater than zero and Mitt played it up as much as he could.
I got one Romney flyer in the mail with pictures of a very young Mitt with father George that I thought was quite effective, however, I am 64 years old. I doubt if it was effective for most younger voters.
I voted for Rudy, but I’m no fool, I am going to go out and rearrange my deck chairs.

Papa Bear on January 16, 2008 at 4:03 pm

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