January 5, 2009, - 12:13 pm

Poll: Labor/Kadima Campaign Commercial a/k/a HAMAS War is Working

By Debbie Schlussel
All along, I’ve been wondering where the heck Tzipi Livni and Ehud Barack, both candidates for Israeli Prime Minister in a soon-to-be-held election and both orchestraters of the current Israel-HAMAS war, were for the last several years as HAMAS rockets hit the working class poor of Sderot. As I noted, they ignored this constant attack on their citizens for years and did nothing. . . until now.
And I’ve noted that they were supporters of giving HAMAS their base in Gaza in the first place. I’ve concluded that the only way this war can be “won” is if most of the Palestinians in Gaza–and the so-called “West Bank,” too, where HAMAS has a lot of support–are decimated, which the world will never allow Israel to do, and which Livni and Barak (and Olmert) don’t have the guts to do.

livnibarakolmert.jpg

Ehud Barak, Tzipi Livni, Ehud Olmert: How Many Israeli Soldiers

Will Die to Keep One of These Three Stooges in Power?

Therefore, this war can only be a loss, as many Israeli soldiers’ lives will be lost in a ground war, and HAMAS will survive. Already, this is echoing the Israel-Hezbollah war of 2006, where the soldiers who were killed were mostly religious Jewish settlers (some of them Ethiopian Jews), whose homes Livni/Olmert/Barak et al want to take away and give to the HAMAS-supporting Palestinians. That war could have been won, but Olmert didn’t have the will, nor did he and his generals issue the commands to beat Hezbollah fully, by running an effective ground war. The same thing will happen again here.
While I want Israel to beat HAMAS, there is only one way to do so–total annihilation of the Palestinians, who are all HAMAS. And again, Israel neither has the guts to do this, nor the ability to do so with its unfortunate dependence upon America and the international community.
And now there is proof that this costly campaign commercial is working. Reader “I Am Me” sends these poll results:

“We have no interest in a long war. We do not desire a broad campaign. We want quiet,” Olmert said. “We don’t want to display our might, but we will employ it if necessary.”
Ordinary Israelis are not eager to see the operation expand beyond the air-based campaign, a poll Thursday showed.
The survey of 472 people showed that 52% want the air assault to continue, while only 19% wanted to see a ground offensive. Twenty percent favored a truce.
The same poll showed dovish and centrist parties would get 60 seats in Israel’s 120-seat parliament if elections were held today, up from 53 before the operation. The big winner was Labor, led by Defense Minister Ehud Barak, the Gaza operation’s mastermind. Hardline and religious parties dropped from 65 to 60. The Dialog company poll had a margin of error of 4.6 percentage points.

Are these numbers worth Israeli soldiers’ lives, when HAMAS will likely survive and be strengthened? Is the “war” worth it, when Olmert–who has, as my father pointed out, always said he no longer wants to fight to survive or to be courageous or have victories–won’t commit to a long war, which is necessary to win (unless they will drop massive bombs and decimate everyone, the only other way to win)?
As I Am Me notes:
The Israeli elections are still over a month away. If the operation stops soon these numbers could revert back for the elections.
So maybe that tells us how long this war will last, ie., until Labor (Barak) or Kadima (Livni) gets elected.

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16 Responses

YES!
The fools say they want to invite international “peace” keepers in after this is all over.
DEBBIE SCHLUSSEL FLASHBACK
http://www.debbieschlussel.com/archives/2006/07/pictures_worth_1.html
Nuf Said!

yonason on January 5, 2009 at 2:24 pm

B”H
I think your analysis is essentially correct.
It’s a total election ploy.
I was in Tel Aviv yesterday, and the Kadima and Labor posters were up in force, starting sparsely on the border of the Greater Tel Aviv area, then all over the place once withing Tel Aviv and suburbs, save for Bnei Braq which will undoubtedly vote for Shas, United Torah Judaism, with some for the Nat’l Union and Likud.
Everywhere a Livni poster/billboard, a Baraq one was right next to it,…almost as if they were running as a team.
The Israeli news media {in some ways} is portraying Livni as the defacto PM,…with very little mention of PM Olmert. All of a sudden it is politically correct to route for the IDF battling Arabs. That’s because it’s Kadima and Labor doing the attacking,…and trying to win an election.
Needless to say there are no such posters in Samaria,…Judea maybe, where two large chunks are claimed to be included within final status borders in any agreement.
Netanyahu could have a right of center/right wing coalition of 62, probably too weak for his taste. He may join with Kadima in a unity government. Likud candidate Dan Meridor has been talking of convincing Netanyahu to give up the Golan Heights. Many want to know why Meridor is on the list at all,…to get his supporters’ votes no doubt.
It seems that he has been silenced,…at least for the time being. Talk of giving up the Golan will lose votes to other farther right wing parties, threatening the Likud’s expected plurality.
Projected seats for Labor {Baraq’s party} have jumped from 8 to 15.
I am not optimistic.

Ben-Yehudah on January 5, 2009 at 2:31 pm

how cynical, and how ignorant to assume that honorable National leaders would allow the tail to wag thge dog.
the timing of this war was based on the end of the truce and the violation thereof by Hamas.
But you totally lose all semblence of credibility whe you quote a poll that only 20 % support a ground war.
IF, as you cynically suggest, Olmert. Livni, and Barak are willing to kill hundreds for the sake of electoral advantage, why would they go against the vast majority of the electorate by doing so?
HUH? any answer? (oops just read the part that comments have to be approved by the very person im criticizing ( best Gilda Radner voice)
never mind
Yaakov

yaakov on January 5, 2009 at 3:10 pm

how cynical, and how ignorant to assume that honorable National leaders would allow the tail to wag thge dog.
the timing of this war was based on the end of the truce and the violation thereof by Hamas.
But you totally lose all semblence of credibility whe you quote a poll that only 20 % support a ground war.
IF, as you cynically suggest, Olmert. Livni, and Barak are willing to kill hundreds for the sake of electoral advantage, why would they go against the vast majority of the electorate by doing so?
HUH? any answer? (oops just read the part that comments have to be approved by the very person im criticizing ( best Gilda Radner voice)
never mind
Yaakov
[Y: NICE TRY, BUT ROCKETS WERE FALLING ON ISRAEL DURING THE ENTIRE TIME OF THE TRUCE. THEY DID NOTHING. AND THE ENTIRE TIME BEFORE THE TRUCE. THEY DID NOTHING, THEN, TOO. “HONORABLE NATIONAL LEADERS”? ARE YOU SERIOUS? WE’RE TALKING OLMERT, BARAK, AND LIVNI HERE. “HONORABLE”? HILARIOUS. DS]

yaakov on January 5, 2009 at 3:11 pm

still no answer to the inconsistency 0f quoting a poll in which the vast majority are against a ground war while at the same time suggesting that the war is being waged for political reasons
and BTW “Honorable? hilarious” is NOT a very cogent argument. (although i might concede you have a point with the present PM)
Yaakov

yaakov on January 5, 2009 at 3:39 pm

They aren’t doing it TOTALLY as an election ploy, though that is definitely a factor in their calculation.

yonason on January 5, 2009 at 4:19 pm

The Hamas rocket campaign was designed to make life in Israel unbearable, ie to encourage Jews to flee the country. Deterence had to be reestablished, which is why I believe this campaign may turn out to be much more forecful than in 2006. Hamas has few backers outside of the CNN newsroom. Egypt, the Saudis, and the US all want Hamas to be defeated. European behavior reflects the fact that Muslim brotherhood political groups are very powerful in the UK, France, and elsewhere. Clearly, Sarkozy is worried about a French intifada (which will come eventually no matter how Le President behaves now).

sonomaca on January 5, 2009 at 4:29 pm

Yaakov:
That 19% wanted to see a ground war does not mean that the vast majority of people were against it. It means that based on the information they had at the time more people were comfortable with the air campaign than they were with ground action. Few people actually want a ground offensive given the risks. Heck, I don’t want a ground war. However the conclusion that Israel needs does require a ground war. I don’t like it but I understand it is necessary and support it.
The other thing to understand is that the impact an air campaign that attempts to minimize “collateral” damage (There is not much of that in Gaza anyway, but that is a separate issue) is limited. As available targets get reduced those poll numbers would shift.
The above are such a simple concepts I can’t believe you don’t understand them.

i_am_me on January 5, 2009 at 4:38 pm

making an extremely weak argument and then characterizing it as “such a simple concept I can’t believe you don’t understand them” or “Honorable? hilarious” does NOT further the debate. I KNOW there are conspirator types who can’t conceive of anything other than ulterior motives for any governmental figure. And while the timing of the ending of the truce togethjer with the period of vacuum in US politics has been fortuitous, I believe the decision was made to go to war was to relieve the stress on Sderot and other Israel pop centers. I believe that it was a sober decision taking into account the eventual loss of lives on both sides. and please don’t respond with a further ridicule based merely on the fact that i don’t agree with you. try to stick to the argument,

yaakov on January 5, 2009 at 6:04 pm

Elections are when the People hold their representatives to account.
And is the only time office holders make an effort to appear to be responding to the will of the People.
Saying why now? because of elections, is a good thing. The Anti-federalists in the US voted down our constitution because (among other reasons) they wanted congressional elections each and every year.
Israel’s parliamentary system works differently, but if things only get done at election time, praise the elections, and may they be as frequent as possible.
Everyone knows Cast Lead will be declared a Palestinian victory, but who listens to what the media says? We live in a post-Pravda time.
You can’t advocate the annihilation of the Palestinian tribe in Gaza. You take militarily what you can get; Gaza will not disappear. The IDF will accomplish a lot, first locally by debilitating Hamas, even if temporarily, and more broadly, our proxy war with Iran has been bumped up to a new level.

Cogito Ergo Sum on January 5, 2009 at 8:39 pm

Somewhat related, but slightly OT here–I am reading the news feed off the Yahoo and other MSM sources. They are horrified that “Palestinian children are being killed” in the crossfire/collateral damage of the Gaza/hamas operation.
Question: Why do they never seem so horrified about the suicide bombings of buses, hotels and cafes which kill 100% civilians including children? Of course, in those cases the killing of children is intentional–that must make it acceptable, eh? What hypocritical liars these people are.

BB on January 5, 2009 at 11:27 pm

There is only one way for “peace in the Middle East”. Choose a side (Israel), arm it to the teeth, and them to the teeth and let them destroy the other side. There can only be one side left when all is said and done. In my view, as long as there are Palestinians alive, the western world will not be safe. This is not genocide, this is survival. They want to kill all Americans, and all Jews (and what’s left of Christian Europeans), so they have set the groundrules of this war. The only way to win, is to rid the earth of these animals.
I doubt Israel has the nerve to go this far, which makes this an unwinnable war.

ramrod on January 6, 2009 at 1:07 am

Too many self hating Jews in power in Israel. You can never make peace with an enemy (HAMAS) who’s only goal is the complete destruction of the Jewish State. Definitely see another Hezbollah debacle coming soon. Hamas will declare victory & Israel will once again look like the paper tiger who doesn’t have the guts to finish the job. A miracle is needed for Israel to survive another 10 years. Soon Iran will have Nukes and it will be a whole new ballgame for the civilized world to function in a normal way. It seems very crazy that the Western Countries all choose to commit suicide instead of fighting with honor & dignity. Very Sad.

Juggler on January 6, 2009 at 6:16 am

Personally, I don’t see Iran’s proliferation coming to fruition. America will not let that happen. Also, Hamas rockets use to only go about 12 miles and now can reach up to 25 miles. At the least it will set the Gazans back from increasing the range in which they can hit Tel Aviv. This military assault will set back Hamas big time. And then Israel just needs to bomb them every so often so they never get ahead. Or they just have an all out war and plan on winning. In my opinion, if no else got involved. I think the IDF could do it in a relatively short time as far as wars go. Wouldn’t be a 5 year campaign. But, could take two years to accomplish their task. They just need the stomach for it.
If I was living in those conditions. I would glad support a war and even fight in it. BTW on Israel’s side.

Tenn Scholar on January 6, 2009 at 9:04 am

To quote you: “While I want Israel to beat HAMAS, there is only one way to do so–total annihilation of the Palestinians, who are all HAMAS.”
Hmmm…. this sounds oddly familiar. Total annihilation? Is that like a ‘Final Solution’? How quickly people forget.

husky on January 6, 2009 at 12:11 pm

When Debbie says, “While I want Israel to beat HAMAS, there is only one way to do so–total annihilation of the Palestinians, who are all HAMAS,” she utters the one unmistakable solution to the Mideast mess.
No war is won against fanatics when the enemy is allowed to stand in even the smallest part. Would FDR have hesitated to kill every Nazi party member and sympathizer if that’s what it took to win WW2? As it was, we did a pretty thorough job on that score. We had to go nuclear on Japan and convince Hirohito to de-deify himself to win in Asia. (BTW, that was the last act of utter courage any Democrat leader can lay undeniable claim to.)
Thanks, Debbie, for saying what needs to be said.

Todd on January 8, 2009 at 9:52 pm

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